Standing up for Istanbul’s mayor will strengthen European security
Semuhi Sinanoglu argues that by remaining silent on Imamoglu’s arrest, Europe jeopardizes its own future security, trading a pro-democracy partner for a full-blown autocratic regime. Europe still has leverage—particularly in the defense sector—but must use it now to push for his release and competitive elections.
On March 23, 2025, Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested — along with dozens of city officials and other mayors — on fabricated charges. His university diploma was also annulled to bar him from running for president. The regime’s objective is clear: to politically siege the main opposition party with lawsuits, forcefully seize opposition-controlled municipalities, and block Imamoglu from challenging Erdogan. He has already defeated the AKP three times in Istanbul elections, including a 2019 re-run that the government forced after refusing to accept its initial loss.
The immediate European reaction to this blatant authoritarian abuse of power has been muted. Aside from brief and cautiously worded statements or ad-hoc local reactions, there has been no serious pushback. Some high-ranking European officials may believe they have little incentive to confront Erdogan, expecting to rely on the Turkish army to shore up European security. They may also view their public criticism as largely ineffective anyway, often exploited by the regime for propaganda purposes.
They would be wrong. This time it is different.
If Europe fails to act, it will not only trade a highly popular, pro-democracy ally with deep ties to European institutions for an unreliable closed autocratic regime with unpredictable foreign policy but also deplete what little soft power it has left, further weakening the EU’s credibility as a defender of the liberal global order.
The European response should go beyond unsubstantiated expressions of concern. Instead, the European public messaging should be coordinated, firm, but not antagonizing. At the same time, European officials should offer the Turkish government credible promises of deeper engagement—particularly in the defense industry through the European rearmament fund—but contingent on Imamoglu’s release and the restoration of electoral competition.
Why European officials may have little incentive to intervene
The warning signs of the Turkish government’s increased repression were already evident in the arrests and detainment of several opposition politicians, businesspeople, and artists. This escalation is a direct consequence of democracy taking a backseat to geopolitics. The erosion of the liberal world order following Trump’s election has emboldened Erdogan’s regime.
With the largest NATO military in Europe, Turkey has a strategic opportunity to assert itself as a key player in European security, especially as the continent scrambles to bolster its defenses. Given Turkey’s expanding influence in Ukraine and Syria, European leaders face little incentive to strongly criticize or act against Erdogan's government, insulating it from meaningful international pressure.
Why European democracy support could have been more effective
European naming-and-shaming and other forms of democracy support have been largely ineffective—or worse, counterproductive in Turkey. My research shows that the regime frames such efforts as foreign meddling, weaponizing them to fuel nationalist sentiments. Against the backdrop of heavy propaganda and deep partisan polarization, international solidarity with the opposition has had unintended consequences—consolidating the government’s electoral base, eroding trust in Western institutions, and feeding conspiratorial narratives.
For instance, when EU officials condemned the conviction and imprisonment of Kurdish politicians, their criticisms largely fell on deaf ears. In some cases, such interventions even backfired. In 2021, when ambassadors from ten countries publicly condemned the unlawful imprisonment of Osman Kavala—a prominent businessperson and human rights defender—and called for compliance with the European Court of Human Rights’ ruling to release him, the regime launched a full-scale propaganda campaign, portraying the criticism as Western interference in Turkish legal system. The ambassadors’ public statement played into the regime’s hand, eventually forcing them to backtrack.
Europe is to blame for this dismal performance. Over the years, the European institutions have lost their soft power in Turkey. Turkish citizens have grown disillusioned with the EU, viewing its approach to Turkey’s accession process as inconsistent and discriminatory. Despite a recent uptick in trends, more Turks have unfavorable than favorable views of the EU. The regime, in turn, has exploited European double standards—particularly on the selective enforcement of international norms—to undermine the EU’s credibility.
Why this time is different
The regime took a calculated risk with Imamoglu’s arrest, anticipating an electoral defeat in the next presidential election if he were allowed to run. This move is riskier than previous crackdowns. The extent of public backlash and market reaction to his arrest highlights the high stakes involved. Over 15 million people voted for Imamoglu in Sunday’s primary to select the main opposition’s presidential candidate. Mass protests have erupted nationwide for days—despite a brutal police response. Turkish diaspora has also mobilized in several European cities. Imamoglu is one of Turkey’s most popular politicians, with a demonstrated ability to unite diverse ideological groups and a consistent track record of electoral victories. As the mayor of the country’s largest metropolitan city, he has both the financial resources and mobilizational capacity to strengthen the opposition.
High-ranking European officials may see silence as a safe bet to protect European strategic interests. They are wrong. Europe’s security architecture against Russian aggression cannot depend on an authoritarian regime prone to erratic policy shifts. Make no mistake—if Imamoglu remains imprisoned, Turkey will be on the path to becoming a closed autocracy. The government would incapacitate the main opposition through lawsuits, rendering the next election virtually meaningless. By remaining inactive, European leaders risk losing a publicly popular, pro-democracy ally in the long run—one likely to win the next election and deeply connected to European institutions—in exchange for a regime that lacks public support and whose security policies could shift unpredictably.
Supporting Imamoglu and the opposition could also help restore the EU’s credibility in the eyes of Turkish public opinion, particularly among younger generations, who have been at the forefront of recent mass mobilizations against the government. According to a recent survey, unlike the majority of the population, almost half of young respondents want Turkey to cooperate with European countries in international affairs.
How Europe should offer support
Scattered and one-off messages of support carry little weight in the Turkish context; they come across as empty words and are, at best, ineffective. European democracy support can only be effective through clear, coordinated, and consistent messaging. European institutions should collectively mobilize to express solidarity with the pro-democracy opposition to rebuild public trust — especially among the younger generations — while ensuring these messages are carefully calibrated not to alienate or antagonize the regime’s conservative support base.
Still, messaging alone is not enough. The European response must include concrete actions that go beyond rhetoric. One strategy that could help persuade the government to scale down repression is to credibly offer closer engagement in the defense industry, by including Turkey in the European rearmament fund, Security Action for Europe (SAFE), through a defense pact, in exchange for Imamoglu’s release and meaningful electoral competition. While the Turkish government holds leverage against its European counterparts amid the shifting geopolitical landscape, this fund remains a strong bargaining chip in Europe’s hands—especially given Turkey’s protracted economic crisis and the lucrative opportunities that defense industry expansion offers to regime-aligned business interests.
If Europe is serious about defending the liberal world order in the wake of the American retreat, it must start by stepping up for Istanbul’s mayor.
Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu is a researcher at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) in Bonn, Germany.
Photo by Burak The Weekender
