America’s empty 'Resolve Tibet Act’ will surrender Tibet to China

Saman Rizwan on why the Act must be backed-up by action in other fields to ensure it does not leave Tibetans out to dry.

After President Biden signed the ‘Resolve Tibet Act’ into law with overwhelming bipartisan support, a delegation of American lawmakers visited India last week to meet with the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s spiritual leader.

Aimed to strengthen the case for Tibet's self-determination, the Act’s measly contents instead offers little more than a vague promise to address the “aspirations of the Tibetan people” and “counter disinformation” from Beijing.

This doesn't come close to solving Tibet’s urgent issues, like the deportation of almost a million Tibetans or Beijing's forced assimilation practices, and represents little more than a band-aid measure that would be inconsequential if it weren’t for the dangerous fallout that Tibetans now face.

In response to this latest meeting in India, China’s vow to retaliate with “resolute measures” must be taken seriously. Considering Beijing’s brutal suppression of Muslim Uyghurs' calls for freedom - which were supported in much the same way by President Biden - an ominous precedent has already been set.

Without genuine support, American involvement in Tibet will be remembered as another failed ploy that encourages a people towards self-determination as part of a larger geopolitical strategy to weaken its adversaries.

The first casualty here won’t be Americans or Chinese, but ordinary Tibetans.

We have seen this before in America’s involvement in Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan, where people were emboldened to rebel against a hostile or rival power, only to be abandoned when the stakes were raised.

Leaving Tibet with this inadequate bill risks repeating America’s betrayal of the Kurds, whom it promised to protect but then abandoned when Iraq started shelling; or the Timorese, whose independence vote was supported by America until Indonesia launched a killing spree, and the US stood aside.

In other situations, such as its support of Bosniaks and Kosovars against the genocidal policies of Serb nationalists, America’s interventions have prevailed precisely because it was prepared to respond militarily once threats turned to violence.

But China, with its massive army and nuclear arsenal, is a far tougher opponent.

If the US wants to shield Tibetans against Chinese encroachments, it must back its course with tangible actions, offering sustained aid and security guarantees. Otherwise, America should refrain from presenting a lackluster bill that will only serve to provoke an unpredictable backlash it is not prepared to rise to.

America’s current support for Tibet materializes mostly through the work of local, pro-US organizations, focusing on cultural and sustainability issues without appearing to undermine China’s sovereignty.

The needle has now been moved.

China’s territorial claims are already contested in Taiwan and swathes of the South China Sea, leading to tense naval standoffs. To mitigate these claims, the US supports a loose accord with neighboring countries to keep Chinese advances in check.

But such accords are likely to falter if challenged when America’s inevitable abandonment of Tibet reveals the limitations of its support.

One of these partners, Malaysia, is already at its own crossroads - attempting to balance relations with both superpowers while embroiled in a legal dispute could upend its fragile relationship with the US and push it right into the arms of Beijing.

Currently, Malaysia is locked in a fierce lawsuit with the supposed heirs of the defunct Philippines-based Sultanate of Sulu, who have lodged a $15bn claim over the oil-rich Sabah province based on a colonial-era treaty signed in the 19th Century.

Initially, it was handled by a Spanish arbitrator, Dr. Gonzalo Stampa. He ruled in favor of the Sulu plaintiffs, granting them the $15bn award that allowed Malaysia’s sovereign assets – through its state-owned oil and gas company, Petronas, to be seized.

Only months later, Stampa received a criminal conviction in connection to an “unusually high fee” paid by Therium, a third-party litigation funder who backed the Sulu’s claims with $20 million investment. Stampa’s ruling has been rightfully overturned, and in March, Petronas subpoenaed a court in Manhattan to disclose documents on “payments,” “communications,” or “money transfers,” between Therium and “anyone who may have conspired” with Stampa.

But with tensions running high and the potential involvement of Silicon Valley firms and hedge funds eager for a return on their investments, Malaysia is justifiably sceptical that an American court will provide a fair ruling.

Because, compounding this skepticism, lawyers representing the Sulus have been linked to US companies and political figures through their litigation funding. Paul Cohen, for example, is the leader of the Silicon Valley Arbitration and Mediation Center. His colleague, Elisabeth Mason, serves on the board of the U.S. charity All-Star Code and is known for having launched the Stanford Poverty and Technology Lab with support from the White House and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg .

Malaysia has still been able to rely on the US for support against China, thanks to security agreements that go far deeper than the empty words of its Tibetan strategy.

But this web of conflicting interests undermines America’s strategic priorities, potentially damaging its standing with the Malaysian Government, and laying bare its limited resolve to follow through with its limp call-to-arms on Tibet.

Rendering the Act meaningful must include funding the territory’s exiled government. It could also leverage its ongoing high level nuclear negotiations with China in the hope of securing smaller scale concessions.

Lastly, third party litigation funding must be regulated by understanding it as a potential national security problem, and strengthening current US legislative efforts to rein in the influence and interests of billionaire corporations.

Tibetans will be inspired by the new Act, and while concrete guarantees remain to be seen, China could be emboldened to send new generations of Tibetan dissidents to their early graves.

Saman Rizwan is UK-based analyst on South Asian affairs. She has a Masters in International Relations from S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU, Singapore. As a journalist and commentator she writes frequently on international politics, technology, human rights and gender-based violence, for publications like South China Morning Post, The Diplomat, The Nation, Forbes, and Newsweek. She has reported from Southeast Asia, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia. She is a former researcher at the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research.

Photo by ZHANQUN CAI