Lula da Silva and Donald Trump: Odd but Key Partners to Bring the Americas Together Again
Glauco Ortolano argues that to “make America great again”, Trump must look beyond the USA's borders.
Even before taking office, Donald Trump is flexing his “trifecta muscles” and threatening Brazil and other BRICS members with imposing 100% tariffs on their imports should they decide to attempt to debunk the US dollar with the creation of their own currency. Trump’s statements and attitude have not been well received in Brasilia, mainly because Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s protégé and former president of Brazil, has been the Chair of the New Development Bank (formerly referred to as BRICS Development Bank), and a proponent of the new BRICS Bank de-dollarizing project.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections is causing a stir in the BRICS, including, of course, in Brazilian domestic politics. Right-wing Brazilian former president, Jair Bolsonaro, and his “coreligionists” are hopeful that the White House will once again turn in their favor, as it did during the first Trump administration. That is, of course, enough to trigger an explosion in the current left-wing government of Lula da Silva, especially after the Brazilian left suffered a major blow in the municipal elections in October.
Along with fellow BRICS and Latin American countries, Brazil will see several challenges posed by this new US administration, starting with the pick for Secretary of State of hardliner Marco Rubio, who has been very hawkish on Latin America, and has referred to Lula da Silva as a “far-left leader.” To make things even worse for the current Brazil-US relations, Donald Trump has also appointed Elon Musk as a member of his staff, and Musk has recently had to face some controversial issues regarding the Brazilian government’s decision to suspend his social network X in Brazil, a move seen by many as a form of censorship to Freedom of Expression usually associated with countries like China, Russia or Iran in a truly Orwellian fashion. And as it has been proven, social media is pivotal for the success of election campaigns in today’s world. But, to make the scenario even bleaker for the Lula government, Janja Lula da Silva, Brazil’s first lady, swears at Elon Musk at the G20 event, while Musk, in turn, promised that the Brazilian far-left would lose the next elections.
On the other side of the political spectrum, the Brazilian far-right apparently will be required to create a new icon, since Jair Bolsonaro will most likely not be able to run in the next presidential elections due to criminal charges he is facing for planning his own domestic version of the 6 January 2021 riots on Capitol Hill, which led Brazil’s Electoral Court to bar him from running for public office for eight years. To make things even worse for Bolsonaro, on 21 November, Brazil’s federal police indicted him for being 'fully aware' of the 2022 assassination plot against Lula da Silva.
Even if Jair Bolsonaro gets support from the White House, which may threaten the Lula government with sanctions and tariffs, the recent attack against the Brazilian Supreme Court by one of Bolsonaro’s “coreligionists” along with his alleged knowledge of the assassination plot, should have sealed his fate.
With that, perhaps his son Eduardo Bolsonaro, a member of the Brazilian lower house, may be selected to give continuity to the far-right family legacy. Eduardo Bolsonaro is said to have made three official visits to Washington in the past 12 months. He also attended Trump’s victory celebration in Mar-a-Lago, which indicates that Trump’s ties with the Bolsonaro family remain strong, as does the old adage “birds of the same feather flock together.” After all, Jair Bolsonaro was once named by the media as ‘Trump of South America’ for a reason.
However, there may not be enough time for the Brazilian right to reinvent itself and regain strength, and if the Americans tighten their grip on Brazil, the US may see yet another traditional ally in the Western Hemisphere to embrace China even closer to the chest than it already has. China has replaced the US as Brazil’s main trade partner, with bilateral trade already exceeding US$ 160 billion in 2024. Furthermore, Trump Trade War May Hurt US Farmers More as China Turns to Brazil. The leaders of Brazil and China have recently signed dozens of economic and development agreements following the G20 Rio summit, including that of building roads to reach the Pacific Ocean as a faster and more economical route for Brazilian exports to Asia via China-controlled Chancay port in Peru. Becoming a bi-oceanic nation has always been Brazil’s ambition as well as a disadvantage when compared to the United States that two export hubs in both the Atlantic and Pacific.
In addition, Lula da Silva and Xi Jinping are old school in ideological terms, as both see the “free market system” as a means towards socialism. These two leaders are also birds of the same feather and have flocked together for some time now with ambitious plans in the international scenario, including a bi-national proposal for a peace plan for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. It would not be an exaggeration to say that, given the instability that Vladimir Putin has created for Russia with his so-called “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, and the conflicting relations that have always existed between India and China over territorial disputes, Brazil, due to fate and the ideology of the current government, will end up becoming China’s strongest economic and political partner within the BRICS.
And even if Donald Trump is not particularly concerned with Brazil, he is truly concerned with the incessant economic and geopolitical growth of China, and seeing China conquering such an important and traditional trade partner, which once belonged to the US, may insult his competitive spirit as a businessman. After all, Brazil is the economic and political powerhouse of Latin America, with plenty of natural resources and foodstuff that are much needed to feed China, particularly soybeans, meat and iron ore. Trump’s isolationism in his own backyard may prove to be deadly to the US interests in the region. Furthermore, even before he comes to power, Donald Trump is already raising issues with some of his closest neighbors south of the border, Mexico in particular, as Round 2 in the Trump-vs-Mexico matchup looks ominous.
These Important US alliances with Latin American countries, and especially with Brazil and Mexico, are fundamental to the stability of the hemisphere but they may be slipping through the fingers of the powers that be in the State Department and White House that insist on maintaining their focus in Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia while ignoring the needs of Latin America. It’s a crucial mistake.
In the meantime, Brazil and the United States seem to be reaching a turning point in their relations, and their current leaders either learn now how to flock with birds of different feathers or there will see a rupture in the Western Hemisphere, not seen since the Cuban-Soviet affairs, except this time, we will be watching a far more powerful China making strides in the hemisphere.
What Donald Trump should bear in mind though, is that Brazil has a territory almost 80 times larger and a population 20 times larger than Cuba’s, as well as the 8th largest economy on the planet. He must also realize that aside from China, the EU has also shown great interest in becoming a major trading partner of Brazil with the recently signed EU-Mercosul agreement, of which Brazil is the major player, to create a free-trade zone comprising of some 700 million people. Such agreement would offer an alternative to Brazil’s trade with China, although it faces strong opposition from France and is still pending the approval of at least 15 of the EU’s 27-member-states as well as the European Parliament.
Lula da Silva, on the other hand, must understand that Brazil is becoming evermore reliant on autocratic regimes such as China, Russia and Iran, and that these countries have a very particular agenda, not consistent with western values. This Chinese-Brazilian marriage of convenience may lead to a point of no return for Brazilian democracy and way of life, by shifting the paradigms of the region. It is imperative and urgent that Lula da Silva and Donald Trump learn how to flock together for the sake of unity and shared values in the Western Hemisphere.
Furthermore, in order to “make America great again,” Donald Trump will have to think outside the limited box he calls “America” and understand that America is a continent that goes far beyond the sole territory of the United States of America, extending from Alaska all the way to Patagonia. In this huge territory with over 1 billion inhabitants, and with more than half of these people living in Brazil and the United States, both countries must become major partners again as to face the challenges of the 21st Century in the interest of the entire hemisphere.
Glauco Ortolano is an Associate Professor at the Defense Critical Language and Culture Program of the Mansfield Center, University of Montana. He has taught at the Lauder Institute of the University of Pennsylvania, and more recently courses in Geopolitics to officers of the US Armed Forces. He was also appointed Peace Ambassador by Le Cercle Universel des Ambassadeurs de la Paix.
The views in this post do not represent those of this publication, nor do they represent those of the author's employer.
Photo by Lara Jameson
