As the extreme right marches on, Europe misses another wake-up call
From the polders of The Hague to the gates of Vienna and across the continent: the mainstreaming of extremism urgently requires a collective, strategic response. East Germany illustrates the case – and offers some lessons.
For nearly a year now, the extremist right has repeatedly come out on top of elections in Europe, but democratic politicians still wring their hands about what to do. And while it could be largely contained in the EU election in June, the damage this does to national and regional politics cannot be overstated.
Most symbolically, on September 1st, 85 years to the day after Nazi Germany attacked Poland, igniting World War II, a far-right extremist party won a state election for the first time in German post-war history. In Saxony and Brandenburg, also in Germany’s East, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) came a close second with nearly one third of all votes in regional elections last month.
Already back in November, the Party for Freedom won the parliamentary election in the Netherlands, even though it did not manage to form a government under its leadership. And in Austria this past weekend, the Austrian Freedom Party came first, standing a good chance to form a coalition with the second-placed conservatives. Meanwhile, in France, the National Movement of Marine Le Pen may have been curtailed by the other parties in June’s snap election, but it holds the key to whether President Emmanuel Macron’s latest Prime Minister will remain in his job.
Likewise in East Germany, the populist, anti-migrant and pro-Kremlin Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) can use its third place to be kingmaker in all three states. Worse, AfD and BSW together have garnered nearly every second vote, leaving little room for constructive policymaking. This compounds the blow to the centre.
Looking more closely at Germany, some commentators pointed out that political leanings in the Eastern part, which made up the former Soviet –led GDR, were not representative of the entire country. Rather, the popularity of anti-establishment parties there could be attributed, in part, to the legacy of the Nazi, Communist and reunification eras; to frustrations with persistent inequities between East and West Germany; and to widespread dissatisfaction with the federal government and opposition.
However, the support for AfD can no longer be wished away as ‘protest votes’. There has been a steady and visible rise in extremist mobilization in eastern regions, ominously illustrated by the black-clad mobs marching and shouting about their desire to clear “Nazi neighbourhoods” from a gay pride event. Hate crime threatening minority communities is likewise surging, with an 80% rise in antisemitic and 114% rise in anti-Muslim incidents recorded in 2023. The AfD have also used social media more adeptly than other parties enabling them to effectively set the agenda around their issues, while being significantly boosted by Kremlin influence and China’s interference.
Indeed, the electoral breakthrough of the AfD in Thuringia - unthinkable a decade ago because of the enduring legacy within German political and social life of the horrors of WW2 – reflects the growing impact on the political mainstream of extremist discourse and concepts in Europe and beyond. It manifests itself recurringly both in electoral form – think of the surging votes over the past decade propelling populist and extremist parties to government in Finland, Italy, and Hungary – and violently – as seen most dramatically with the January 6 insurrection in America.
This trend poses a systemic threat to democracy, corroding civic culture and pluralist processes from within. Not only do we face the rise of xenophobic-populist and authoritarian-nationalist outfits, but mainstream parties have repeatedly been baited into addressing their core issues, even adopting some of their core narratives to hold onto votes. Then again, in East Germany, upholding the “firewall” against the AfD means governing with the pro-Russia BSW. This will affect national policies – most critically on support for Ukraine and the transatlantic alliance – as well as fundamental democratic norms and values.
Moreover, the very real harms of mainstreamed extremism can and will continue to be felt in everyday life. Already, the AfD’s blocking minority in Thuringia and Brandenburg provides it with some real powers to influence parliamentary procedures like the appointment of judges and the programming of the public broadcaster. This will also have repercussions at a societal level: threats to journalists and civic activists are likely to increase while far right extremist views will be even more prevalent in people’s everyday lives, touching workplaces, schools, and other public spaces.
Longer term, the AfD’s strong showing and BSW’s newly found role as kingmaker will lead to an unstable coalition of unlikely partners. This will further contribute to misgivings about democratic governance, providing the AfD with fodder for the federal election scheduled for September 2025.
Given this conundrum, what should policymakers do?
Many civil society organizations, including our own, have for years warned of the detrimental effects of the mainstreaming of extremism and have developed effective though relatively small-scale programming to deal with these phenomena. For nearly two decades, our teams at ISD have monitored and innovated responses to the evolving tactics of extremist social movements and political forces, which have been increasingly bolstered by foreign authoritarian governments, and hypercharged by the algorithmic systems of social media.
The following lines of action are drawn from those insights and activities, bolstering the state’s defences while investing in society’s resilience.
- First, establishing a European joint threat assessment centre for the monitoring and sharing of real-time insights and data on digital threats to democracy.
- Second, working to ensure the optimal enforcement of existing EU legislation, primarily the Digital Services Act but also the AI Act and others, to stem the flow of disinformation and foreign influence operations on social media platforms.
- Third, devising a European strategy to counter hybridized threats to democracy, integrating policies and action on foreign interference and cyber-warfare; counter-extremism and terrorism; democracy promotion; information integrity; and media literacy.
- Finally, providing meaningful financial support to civil society organizations supporting democracy, extremism prevention, diversity and political education programming, including by swiftly adopting legislation like the Democracy Promotion Act proposed by the federal government in Germany.
Nearly every Western country has seen at least some democratic decline over the past years, and much of it is related to the steady mainstreaming of extremism. However, seeing the ghosts of the past rise to prominence in places like Germany and Austria is of particular concern.
Therefore, lest the most recent string of elections become a tipping point on the downward trajectory of democracy, they ought to be an inflection point for the forces of pluralism and constitutional order. They need to reinvigorate their work to protect and renew the democratic principles, structures and institutions on which Europe’s post-war success story has been built.
Sasha Havlicek is a social and policy entrepreneur who, for the last two decades, has incubated and scaled global initiatives to counter the rise of weaponised hate, disinformation and extremism, on- and offline. As founder of the leading global ‘think and do tank’, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), she has led the build-out of ISD’s advanced digital analytics capability designed to detect and mitigate information threats to democracy, public safety and national security. Spearheading ISD’s extensive partnerships with governments, cities, businesses and communities, Sasha oversees ISD’s teams delivering research, policy advisory, training, digital literacy and communications programming around the world.
Cornelius Adebahr is a political analyst and consultant living in Berlin, Germany. His work focuses on European foreign policy issues, transatlantic relations, and Iran. Since the end of 2000, he has been the owner of Wirtschaft am Wasserturm – Political Consultancy, Project Development, and Training. In addition, he is a non-resident fellow at Carnegie Europe in Brussels and an associate fellow of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), as well as a member of the Team Europe of the European Commission.
Photo by Zhanzat Mamytova
