Germany’s Gulf Partnership - A Solution For Post-Coal Britain’s Energy Security Conundrum
The end of coal signals a new energy security conundrum for Britain. Can Germany’s recent Gulf partnership offer a solution?
As September drew to a close, so too did Britain’s last coal power station, marking the end of an era for the nation that birthed the Industrial Revolution and relied on coaling stations to fuel its global empire.
The closure, alongside a recent court ruling that blocked plans for a new coalmine in Cumbria, shows that the age of coal is over.
Environmental groups and politicians alike, including Britain’s energy tsar Ed Miliband, have praised the move as the kind of leadership needed to drive a global energy transition.
Welcome though this may be, it further complicates Britain’s energy security conundrum marked by a demand to meet new energy demands while keeping energy costs low and delivering on its green transition goals. This transition poses significant hurdles, especially as three-quarters of its energy needs are sourced from oil and gas.
The government has set ambitious climate goals, aiming to double onshore wind capacity, triple solar power, and quadruple offshore wind by 2030. But meeting these targets will take both time and investments.
In the meantime, Britain remains a hostage to expensive electricity purchases from Western Europe, sourcing around 15% of its power from imports, a worrying figure that broke the last record by 50%. Relying on imports makes Britain vulnerable to fluctuations in the global market – a volatile landscape, especially after Russia’s imperial venture.
After all, the war in Ukraine has caused chaos in global oil and gas markets, further complicating Britain’s energy outlook. With coal off the table and renewables still unable to fully meet demand, the country faces a potential energy shortfall. Some forecasts predict that by 2035, Britain could experience up to 28 hours in which demand will outstrip supply, forcing the government to buy premium energy on the market.
For now, Britain has leaned on imports from Norway and America to fill its energy gap after imposing sanctions on Russian energy. But this strategy comes with risks. Norway's gas supplies are expensive and limited, while President Biden’s pause on liquefied natural gas exports exposes the dangers of relying on foreign powers, even your venerable allies.
While Britain’s situation is difficult, it’s not unprecedented. Germany, which relied far more heavily on Russian gas than Britain, has been grappling with its own crisis since the war in Ukraine. Its industrial output is expected to drop by 7% in 2024, thanks to energy shortages, even despite being leagues ahead of the UK in renewables.
Germany is realizing renewables alone won’t be enough to sustain its heavy industries. To address this, it has recently turned to partnerships with Gulf countries. Early in October, Germany’s largest chemicals company, Covestro, struck a $16 billion deal with the UAE’s state-owned energy giant, Adnoc.
Covestro, which plays a critical role in industries such as automotive and electronics, leads in a chemical industry which overall contributes around 5% to Germany’s GDP. The UAE has committed to investing $150 billion in energy and industry by 2027, and now a portion of that investment will help revitalize Germany’s industrial sector.
This partnership goes beyond financial investment. With Adnoc’s involvement, Germany gains valuable access to a leading oil player, which is vital as a third of its energy needs are still met by oil. This collaboration could even offer Germany an edge in securing future energy supplies away from Moscow.
Britain should follow Germany’s lead and seek partnerships with Gulf states to address its energy security challenges. However, it must also bear in mind that such partnerships are not without risks. The Gulf region is more distant than Norway or America and could be vulnerable to escalating conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, some fear that the UK’s increased reliance on fossil fuel imports could hinder its momentum towards green energy, making it harder to meet its climate targets while maintaining energy security.
However, the Gulf states, particularly the UAE, are aware of the rapidly shifting energy landscape and are investing heavily in renewable energy. Adnoc, for example, has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2045 and recently signed a $3 billion deal for decarbonization projects. Germany’s partnership with the UAE is perhaps more forward-looking than meets the eye, aligning industrial and climate goals in a way that its former partner Russia never even pretended to uphold.
In this respect, just as it once led the world in industrial innovation by harnessing the power of coal, Britain must now demonstrate global leadership by offering a viable energy transition blueprint for others to emulate. Beyond shutting down coal plants, it must secure new, diversified energy partnerships—particularly with the Gulf states—while maintaining its economic strength and commitment to climate goals.
This strategic balance will define Britain’s future as a global power.
Dr. Maurizio Geri is a former NATO analyst, an Italian Navy Lieutenant POLAD reservist, and a GMU postdoctoral researcher/EU Marie Curie Fellow who specialises in EU-NATO technology cooperation in the energy-resources-climate security nexus as well as Russian hybrid warfare.
Photo by Pixabay
