Trump 2.0: Trigger Points for Europe?

While Trump’s first presidency was characterised by chaos, his re-election could deliver an even heavier blow to global cooperation. Looking ahead, Stephan Klingebiel and Max-Otto Baumann argue that Europe must redefine its role in the world order and build alliances beyond the usual suspects.

The upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 could have a dramatic impact on global politics, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House for a second term. While his first presidency was characterised by chaos and populism, ‘Trump 2.0’ would have even more profound consequences for the multilateral order and global cooperation. This raises some serious questions for Europe.

While Trump fans the flames of structural upheaval in international politics, a Kamala Harris-led government is likely to act as a firewall – at least for the immediate future. But that does not mean that all would come out smelling like roses: Harris would not automatically continue all of Joe Biden's policies – including, for example, his proactive defence of democracy vis-a-vis autocratic states. Harris may also prove to be a weak partner for managing global conflicts. That is why, no matter who sits in the Oval Office come November, European players must prepare for a new geopolitical era.

Still, there is no denying that Trump poses the larger threat to Europe’s international agenda. What are the main trigger points that European policymakers should bear in mind, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House?

#1: A Step Away from the Multilateral Order

During his first term, Trump withdrew the US from several international institutions and agreements, including the Human Rights Council and the nuclear accord with Iran. Should he win re-election, it is very likely that the US would continue to pursue an isolationist course. Doing so could further weaken multilateral institutions that have long formed the backbone of the global order. What is more: Trump’s attitude towards the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Trade Organisation (WTO) would lead the US to further neglect these institutions, significantly harming global trade regimes.

This poses a particular challenge for Europe. Without the US as a stable partner in multilateral forums, the international community's ability to tackle global problems – such as climate change and poverty – will be severely limited. Further, a US withdrawal would position rising states like China and Russia with additional power, while Europe would need to focus on strengthening its leadership role.

#2: Threats to International Climate Policy

A second Trump presidency would also have alarming consequences for international climate policy. Trump's approach to climate in his first term was clear: he denied the existence of a climate crisis and initiated the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Looking ahead, Trump 2.0 would likely continue what he started by further undermining progress in international climate policy. The conservative Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 aims to end the “war on oil and gas” and dismantle vital climate finance architecture. Such a policy is likely to lead to a global increase in emissions and significantly slow the international fight against climate change.

For Europe, which is deeply committed to climate protection and sustainable development, this backpedalling would be a major blow. Without the US as an active partner, it would be more difficult for the EU to achieve its global climate targets. At the same time, the gap between Brussels and Washington on climate policy could widen even further.

#3: Effects on Development Cooperation

In his first term, Trump did not radically reorganise US development policy as many originally feared – but his administration’s policies have not been particularly beneficial for the Global South, either. However, in his second term, Trump is planning to drastically curtail the scope of USAID (the United States Agency for International Development) and may align Washington’s development cooperation even more closely with its foreign policy objectives. An offensive approach to thwart China's Belt and Road Initiative may end up at the centre of US development policy.

Such a situation would mean that Europe, which plays an important role in development policy, will have to take on even greater financial and operational responsibility. What is more: a reduction in US aid would mean that countries heavily dependent on development cooperation and humanitarian assistance would come up short. European states would need to partially compensate for this deficit – and presumably while simultaneously increasing their defence spending under American pressure.

#4: Geopolitical Shifts in the Global South

Interestingly, for many actors in the Global South, Trump 2.0 could nevertheless be perceived as an opportunity rather than a crisis. The US has dominated the international order for decades: Washington’s speedy international retreat could afford greater manoeuvring room for developing countries. Without the US’ presence, these states could focus even more on building a multipolar world order that is less characterised by Western values and norms and more by competing centres of global power. This would open up new options, including the ability to engage in different alliances and play off great powers.

This shift could spell major changes for Europe’s global status. European states may be increasingly perceived as ‘Eurocentric’ if they continue to strive for a rules-based order. Further, actors in the Global South will likely orientate themselves even more towards China and, to a lesser degree, Russia. This could lead to increased geopolitical rivalry and weaken Europe's position in the world.

Come November: Europe Must Be Prepared

Looking ahead, one thing is clear: a second term for Donald Trump would pose significant challenges for both the global order and Europe. Still, it is worth noting that the election of Kamala Harris would not guarantee stability, either. In a time of deep internal divisions, the US – whether under Trump or Harris – is likely to become a less reliable partner for the foreseeable future.

The challenge for European actors is to redefine their role in the world order and build alliances that go beyond traditional Western partnerships. To get there, the EU should focus more on cooperation with countries in the Global South. That way, no matter which way the winds of change blow in November, Europe will be on a path to better weather the storm.

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This blog post is based on a German version available on Weltneuvermessung. Dr. Stephan Klingebiel heads the research programme ‘Inter- and Transnational Cooperation’ at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) in Bonn. Dr. Max-Otto Baumann is a Senior Researcher in ‘Inter- and Transnational Cooperation’ at IDOS.

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Photo: President Trump White House Archive / Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0)