COP29: Global Climate Policy, Like it’s the 1990s
Martha Molfetas argues that regardless of recent events, it is still cheaper to save the planet than destroy it.
Maybe the eternally burning mountain of natural gas should have tipped folks off, but Azerbaijan serving as COP29 host was always going to be saturated in fossil fuels. This was the second consecutive UN climate conference to be hosted by a petrostate. While Dubai’s COP28 shockingly called for a phase out of fossil fuels and a swift transition to renewable energy last year, Baku’s COP29 provided a mise en scene that could backtrack the slow progress made to date.
Meeting simultaneously, the G20 decided to remove commitments to phase out fossil fuels. Fossil fuel interests are pushing to deter and delay climate action both at these annual COPs and other multilateral forums, like the Plastics Treaty Negotiations. It’s likely the United States will again withdraw from the Paris Agreement soon after president-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated.
Going in, this was supposed to be the equitable finance COP, coming out it’s clear this has been the climate inequity COP. Before it even began, Papua New Guinea announced they would not attend COP29, stating that these annual climate conferences do not fulfill the actions needed to save vulnerable nations. With the COP29 president stating multiple times that fossil fuels were a gift from God. Increasingly, these annual climate conferences have had a growing number of fossil fuel interests attend. But COP29 hit a record, with fossil fuel interests surpassing any country's delegation at a whopping 1,773 people.
Based on the outcomes, it’s clear climate needs are being outmaneuvered by climate-causing interests. As if completely disconnected from the necessary and accelerated responses needed to avert our self-inflicted climate crisis; and the overwhelming cause of our climate calamity. Fossil fuels have contributed towards 75% of all greenhouse gas emissions ever emitted. It’s no wonder fossil fuel interests are pulling all the breaks to prevent climate action.
COP29’s negotiations centered around developed countries footing the bill for climate finance, while excluding China and other nations with a growing share of emissions and a growing slice of the global economic pie. It’s almost like deja vous. Many of these same issues: fossil fuel interests pushing denial and delay; questions about China contributing towards finance - the world’s second largest economy; and potential U.S. withdrawal were all at play during and following the Kyoto climate accords in 1997. These issues proved to make Kyoto ultimately fail. Is COP29 repeating the failures of the past?
This was going to be the epicenter for robust climate finance, with COP29 centered on the New Collective Qualified Goal (NCQG). This new target will replace the now inadequate $100 billion annual target established in Copenhagen in 2009. The world of today is facing higher emissions, and higher climate consequences than it was just 15-years ago. Developing nations will need $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate and transition towards renewable energy. Instead, COP29 failed to meet the moment, setting a toothless and paltry climate finance goal of at least $300 billion by 2035 in loans and grants. Failing to view climate finance as an investment in a habitable and prosperous future for all of us.
For comparison, global fossil fuel subsidies reached a record $7 trillion in 2023 globally in direct and indirect subsidies, according to the International Monetary Fund. That’s free money for fossil fuels and prohibitive loans for climate action. Wealthy governments failed to reach the amount of climate finance needed, while they actively fund the cause of climate change. The agreement also excludes references to phasing out fossil fuels.
A death by many small cuts.
One can see why a group of former diplomats, including Ban-Ki Moon and Christiana Figueres signed an open letter calling for dramatic change to how host-countries are chosen and to find ways to remove fossil fuel interest from climate negotiations. Environmental groups have also elevated calls for a 2% global climate wealth tax during COP29. Specifically targeting billionaires, this effort alone could raise $250 billion a year. Either way, if change isn’t taken, it’s possible COP29 is the start of undoing the Paris Agreement and our only shared global forum dedicated to climate action.
While the global state of the climate is reaching ever uncertain limits, with 2024 sure to be the hottest year ever recorded, the validity of these conferences has come to the fore. At a time when the world needs more robust targets and global collaboration, COP29 ultimately failed both to reach for the climate finance necessitated by this historic moment and further fractured faith in multilateral processes.
Despite what was on full display this November, it is still cheaper to save the planet than destroy it. Heavy emitting sectors, like fossil fuels, are among the few to benefit from stalled climate action. We could see a 3.8% increase to global GDP by 2070, adding $43 trillion in economic benefits, by decarbonizing our economies and addressing our climate crisis head on - to say nothing of the $1.2 quadrillion in avoided climate damages by 2100.
Regardless of COP29’s failings, next year nations will recommit to emissions reducing targets. Fossil fuel interests are a strong opposition, but the potential windfalls and benefits are on the side of climate action. History will judge whether or not we will reach the co-beneficial opportunities ahead, or allow a small cohort of monied interests to veer us off course. A climate resilient future is still within reach.
Martha Molfetas is a Visiting Assistant Professor at Pratt Institute’s Graduate Center for Planning and the Environment, where she teaches Environmental Economics. Martha is a senior climate and energy policy consultant, writer, and strategist with over 15-years of experience helping NGOs, think tanks, and businesses unpack climate, environmental justice, resource conflict, sustainable development, and global policy issues – most recently as a Senior Fellow at New America.
Photo by Rohit Potdar
