After the Immediate Coronavirus Crisis: 3 Scenarios for Global Development

Rather than make predictions, we outline three scenarios for how the world might look once the initial phase of the immediate Covid-19 crisis has passed.

- An ugly scenario of global meltdown
- A bad scenario of a return to the pre-Covid-19 state of climate breakdown and considerable inequality
- A good scenario of a transition towards global sustainable development

We emphasise that a considerable challenge is present to increase the likelihood of the third, and most desirable, scenario prevailing.

Policy Recommendations

• Now is the time to think about the future of global development
• Returning to the bad scenario is possible, but the challenge is to ‘not waste the crisis’ and aim for transformation in economic, social and political institutions and norms
• Good global development requires commitments to greater domestic inclusion, as well as stronger international cooperation not just in health, but also related to climate change and addressing global inequality.

(A PDF is available below or a full text version here)

Photo by Bruno Cervera from Pexels