30th anniversary of Dayton: Unfinished peace project in Bosnia and Herzegovina and a roadmap towards Dayton 2.0

The Dayton Agreement has been hailed as one of the most successful feats of American diplomacy. After all, it has ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina that took more than 100,000 lives and lasted from 1992 to 1995. Yet, the agreement has become a central barrier to much-needed Bosnian nation-building in the past decade, fostering a dysfunctional political system that fuels ethnic tensions and allows secessionist movements, particularly in Republika Srpska (RS). The system’s centering of ethno-national representation, recognized by the European Court of Human rights as discriminatory, has been used by Russia to continuously impede Bosnia's Euro-Atlantic integration. With the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement, the incoming U.S. administration has an opportunity to complete the Dayton reform and put a stop to the negative trends simmering in past years. This essay offers a Dayton 2.0 roadmap by introducing concrete proposals that stand on security, political and human-rights pillars. If done together, such a feat would protect Bosnia and Herzegovina from a renewed conflict and shield American interests while countering Russia’s malign presence in the Western Balkans.

Policy recommendations

• Unless the Bosnian state is made more functional and the current structural issues of Dayton addressed, instability and conflict as last resort remain likely. Carrying the Dayton 2.0 reform along three pillars – security, human-rights, and political – would mitigate malign foreign influence, put a stop to the slow disintegration of the country, and align Bosnia with the United States’ broader interests in stabilizing the Balkans and advancing Euro-Atlantic integration.
• Central to the security pillar is the establishment of a New Security Pact – a coalition involving the United States, United Kingdom, Turkey and Norway to provide a transitional security framework for Bosnia until it achieves NATO membership. This includes commitments for defense assistance and security guarantees in order to engage with more complex points of the Dayton reform, the political and human-rights pillars.
• In the human-rights pillar, the United States should center the ECHR’s rulings as a basis to reform the political system and eliminate ethnic discrimination. This needs to be complimented by empowering local agency through a citizens’ assembly, a targeted usage of some OHR jurisdictions to enhance Bosnian institutional capacity and the introduction of number of new institutions that will streamline government functions and support EU integration processes.
• Through the political pillar, the United States should implement a carrot and stick approach to combine a mix of incentives for reforms with accountability for obstructionism. In aligning with the EU’s Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, the United States can supplement the funds with its own strategic investment framework in the defense and energy sectors to foster greater energy independence and enhance defense and security interoperability. Expanded the scope of restrictive measures should include financial networks and secondary sanctions.

Photo by Misael Silvera