Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats have reshaped the global nuclear landscape, potentially altering public attitudes toward nuclear deterrence and weapons use. This article examines American preferences for United States responses—nuclear, conventional, or nonmilitary—to three hypothetical scenarios involving Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Drawing on data from the 2022 National Security Survey by the Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, we find that the American public generally favors conventional military responses over nuclear options, even in the face of increased nuclear threats. Qualitative analysis reveals that respondents primarily apply a “logic of consequences,” prioritizing strategic military utility over ethical or normative concerns when considering responses. These findings have significant implications for US nuclear policy and the theoretical discourse on nuclear nonuse.
Policy Implications
- A majority of the US public prefers a military response to a limited first nuclear use by Russia in Ukraine.
- The US public supports responding militarily with conventional armaments over a nuclear response.
- Qualitative results indicated the public may be willing to consider escalation, highlighting the importance of decision-makers carefully evaluating how to communicate and justify any proposed response.
- The second most preferred policy option was no military response. This means policymakers may have support for a continuation of no direct involvement in the conflict, which could mitigate nuclear escalation or provide room for diplomatic engagement.
Photo by Wendelin Jacober