This article consists of a detailed survey of the trade regulations adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. It analyses how trade policymakers have responded to unforeseen geopolitical events and how their responses and the scope of these measures have differed depending on the nature of the event. Based on the International Trade Centre's databases of temporary trade measures, we found that 407 COVID-19-related and 189 Ukraine conflict-related regulations have been issued since 2020. During the pandemic, temporary trade measures were global and comprehensive. They have mostly aimed to liberalise the imports and restrict the exports of essential commodities. In contrast, temporary measures were enacted mainly on specific sectors by the belligerents and their allies during the war in Ukraine. They consisted mainly of prohibitions and restrictions of the exports and imports of strategic commodities. Some third countries, considered as neutral in this war, have also adopted temporary measures with global scope to mitigate the sanctions' disruptive effects on their own domestic markets.
Policy Implications
- Policymakers may use temporary trade measures to secure domestic supply of essential or strategic commodities, sanction geopolitical rivals and enforce new industrial policy. However, they should avoid their permanent use given their potential disruptive impacts on the international trading system and the global order.
- The utilisation of temporary trade measures amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine shows that their adoption is becoming an entrenched policy practice. Consequently, policymakers are encouraged to report enacted temporary trade measures to the relevant international bodies, which should document these measures and regulate them to ensure transparency and prevent them from contravening established international treaties and laws.
- To mitigate the utilisation of temporary trade measures in the future, policymakers should also address strategic dependencies by developing frameworks that facilitate innovative and sustainable diversification initiatives. This should involve more than simply encouraging reshoring, nearshoring, friendshoring and subsidisation, as such strategies may lead to anti-competitive practices.
- To ensure the enforceability and the effectiveness of certain temporary trade measures, policymakers should incorporate them into coordinated actions involving international partners or organisations.
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