In this paper, we discuss the literature and consider the historical relationship between growth and a set of poverty-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically extreme monetary poverty, undernutrition, stunting, child mortality, maternal mortality and access to clean water. We then make projections for 2030. We find that it is very likely that global poverty-related SDGs will not be met and by a considerable distance. The implication of this, we argue, is that more emphasis is needed on both policies to raise growth rates (i.e., build productive capacities) and distributive policy measures such as the introduction or expansion of income transfers, and ensuring investments in public goods are sufficient.
Policy Implications
- The global poverty-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will not be met on current trends and not be met by a considerable distance. Major progress had been made since 2000. However, global progress has very much stalled.
- Economic growth and expanding productive capacities must be accompanied by policies to address income inequality, and the expansion of access to public goods is necessary. Social assistance such as cash transfers, social insurance including health insurance, expanding education, and active labour market policies are important policy measures.
- Our SDG projections imply a greater focus is needed by the global policy community – meaning the international financial institutions in particular – where the prospects are worst for the poverty-related SDGs. Notably, greater emphasis needs to be placed on supporting the poorest countries.