In the wake of the Hamas–Hezbollah war with Israel following the 7 October 2023, the Iran–Israel shadow war escalated into direct military conflict. While addressing the characteristics of Iran's deterrence strategy, the present contribution argues that in case of escalation in the Middle East region, the so-called ‘forward defence’ doctrine may not guarantee the survival of the Islamic Republic in Iran. Consequently, any direct military aggression against Iranian nuclear facilities could provoke Iran's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and prompt a significant reevaluation of its nuclear strategy. This study draws on 18 semi-structured interviews conducted with Iranian military, political and religious officials and historians and scholars specialising in nuclear security. It goes against research that asserts Shia Islam serves as a barrier to Iran's development of nuclear weapons.
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