The crisis coming to the German government
When you read about Germany in the international press recently, it was probably a report on how the government pursued seemingly unilateral policies in the Euro crisis. Yesterday morning, for a welcome change, you could hear about Lena, a 19-year-old girl that had just finished school, winning the Eurovision Song Contest in Oslo. But this brief moment of joy lasted only a few hours: At 2 o’clock in the afternoon of Monday, May 31, the German Federal President stepped down – with immediate effect. The reason he gave was a lack of respect towards his office, referring to the criticism he received after making controversial remarks about how international military operations might serve the German (economic) interest.
This historically unprecedented event at the same time symbolises and deepens the continuous crisis that has engulfed the coalition government ever since it came to power in last autumn.
To be true, the demission of the German President is by no means comparable to a similar move by his French or American homologue. If it were, i.e. if he had comparable powers to govern, you probably would have come across his name. Yet, Horst Köhler is not very well known outside of international finance and economics (he actually quit his job as director of the International Monetary Fund to become Federal President), the African political and social elites (he did really care about this continent, making at least annual visits and engaging in meaningful policy dialogues), and, well, Germany. Having never occupied an elected office before being handpicked by the then-opposition leaders, Angela Merkel and Guido Westerwelle (who happened to be able to form a majority across the upper and lower House of Parliament that together elect the Federal President), many Germans liked him and his hands-on, down-to-earth style.
President Köhler’s sudden and surprising departure is the preliminary climax of a government crisis long in the making. The liberal-conservative coalition led by Chancellor Merkel not only got off to a bad start with mistakes of their own making. It was also soon caught off guard by the developing currency crisis across Europe. A defendable policy line – Greece should first help herself before the government could count on solidarity support from fellow member states as a last resort – was communicated in a disastrous way to both the citizens and European partners. Regional elections in populous North Rhine-Westphalia due in early May did not help to speed up the process. Even though, in all fairness, it was a mere hope and never an actual policy to delay any support for Greece until after that date.
The election there ended in a clear defeat of the governing coalition of Christian Democrats and Liberals, though without a victory for the opposing Social Democrats and Greens. The resulting ‘well-hung Parliament’ with coalition negotiations still ongoing means that the federal government also lost its majority in the Bundesrat, the chamber of the Länder or upper House of Parliament. Last week then, the premier of Hesse, Roland Koch, stepped down similarly unexpectedly. His leaving politics is widely regarded as a major loss for his Christian-Democratic party, having been a powerful regional leader as well as an economic heavyweight.
The criticism of Angela Merkel and how she steered the party as well as the government, fairly audible already during the Euro crisis and amplified by the defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia, will continue to grow. The pressure to present a suitable successor within 30 days is enormous and will test the beleaguered coalition’s cohesion. Again, she and Foreign Minister Westerwelle from the Liberal party enjoy a comfortable majority across both Houses of Parliament to elect the President. However, in this moment of crisis, it is more important than ever to present a candidate ‘above party politics’. Yet, should Merkel woo the Social Democrats in this search for a compromise too much and to the detriment of her liberal coalition partner, this will be regarded as a precedent to also change the governing coalition.
All this does not bode well for a Europe in crisis herself. For one thing, Ms Merkel now definitely is no longer the leader of Europe as the TIME magazine claimed back in January. In addition to the Euro crisis, compounded by steep cuts to be made in the next budget, she has a twin blow to the government and her party to deal with. What is more, the German public will be even less inclined to weather the crisis. Deserted by one of the few really popular politicians who, as an economic expert with international experience, should have provided guidance in the current financial turmoil, people are likely to lose the little trust they had in politics.
Finally, it is ironic that the next ‘Berlin Speech’ of the Federal President, originally scheduled for June, should have had ‘Europe’ as its topic. We might never know what Horst Köhler would have said; we know, however, that Europe will suffer from his abrupt decision unless the German government uses this crisis for a much-needed second start. Chances are slim, but, after Saturday's Grand Prix as well as yesterday's presidential announcement, everything seems possible.
